Quick Answer
A crop year, or marketing year, is the roughly one-year period over which a harvested crop is marketed, running harvest to harvest rather than January to December. Old crop is grain already harvested and being drawn down; new crop is still growing or yet to be planted. Old-crop and new-crop contract months respond to different fundamentals.
The whole section turns on one calendar fact and its consequence: the year runs harvest to harvest, so old-crop and new-crop months trade on different supply pictures.
What a Crop Year Is
A crop year (also called the marketing year) is the roughly one-year period over which a harvested crop is marketed.
- It runs harvest to harvest: it begins around the time a crop is harvested and ends just before the next harvest.
- Each commodity has its own crop-year calendar tied to when it is picked, so the year for one grain does not line up with another's.
Exam Tip: Gotchas
- The crop year runs harvest to harvest, not January to December. A contract month's label as old-crop or new-crop, not the calendar date, tells you which harvest's supply it is trading on.
Old Crop vs New Crop
Grain is split into two buckets depending on which harvest it belongs to, and futures contract months are split the same way.
| Feature | Old crop | New crop |
|---|---|---|
| Status | Already harvested, being drawn down from existing supplies | Still growing or yet to be planted |
| Comes to market | Now, from stockpiles on hand | At the upcoming harvest |
| Contract months | Months covering delivery before the next harvest | Months falling in and after the coming harvest |
| Priced on | Current stockpiles and known supply | The expected size of the coming harvest |
Think of it this way: old crop is the food already in the pantry, and new crop is the garden still growing outside. You count what is in the pantry today to price old crop, but you can only estimate the garden's yield to price new crop.
New-Crop Months Reflect the Anticipated Harvest
New-crop contract months price in the expected size of the coming harvest, drawing on acreage planted, growing-season weather, and yield forecasts.
- They can trade at prices that diverge from old-crop months whenever the outlook for the new harvest differs from current tight or loose supplies.
- A large expected new harvest can leave new-crop months trading below old-crop months even while old-crop supplies stay scarce.
A New Crop Year Resets Supply
When the new harvest comes in, it replenishes supply and starts a fresh crop year.
- The incoming harvest resets the supply-and-demand balance the market has been trading around.
- This is why old-crop and new-crop months respond to different fundamentals: old crop trades on current stockpiles, new crop trades on the still-unfolding growing season.
Exam Tip: Gotchas
- A supply shock in the old-crop months does not automatically move the new-crop months the same way. A drought tightening this season's leftover supplies can spike old-crop futures while new-crop months, priced off a hoped-for normal harvest, barely react (or even fall if the new crop looks large). Check which crop year a contract month belongs to before assuming they move together.