Municipal Analysis and Pricing

Quick Answer

General obligation (GO) bonds are judged on the issuer's tax base using debt-per-capita, net-debt-to-assessed-value, and tax-collection ratios; revenue bonds are judged on debt-service coverage and flow of funds. Munis quote in dollar price or yield, use 30/360, amortize premiums, accrete discounts, and pay federally tax-exempt interest.

The whole calculation-heavy unit on one sheet: analyze GO versus revenue credit, price and quote the bond, adjust the basis, run the yields, and apply the tax rules.


GO Analysis vs. Revenue Analysis

  • GO (general obligation) bonds: backed by full faith, credit, and taxing power. Analyze the tax base: population trends, employment diversity, income levels, property values, and management quality.
  • GO debt ratios: net debt to assessed valuation, net debt per capita, debt service to total budget, and tax collection ratio (taxes collected / taxes levied).
  • Net direct debt = total direct debt minus self-supporting (revenue) debt. Net overall debt = net direct debt plus overlapping debt.
  • Revenue bonds: backed by a specific revenue source (tolls, user fees, tuition). Analyze the feasibility study, protective covenants, flow of funds, and coverage.
  • Debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) = net revenue / annual debt service. Net revenue = gross revenue minus operations and maintenance (O&M).

The One-Liners That Win Points

  • Declining population or property values make debt ratios WORSE: the same debt is spread across a shrinking base.
  • Net direct debt EXCLUDES revenue bonds (self-supporting); overlapping debt EXCLUDES state debt (states use income and sales taxes, not local property taxes).
  • Additional bonds test must be met BEFORE new parity bonds are issued.
  • Gross pledge: bondholders paid before O&M (more protective). Net pledge: O&M paid first (more common).
  • Utility revenue bonds need only 1.25x coverage; other revenue bonds need 2.0x (essential services have stable demand).
  • Term bonds quote in dollar price; serial bonds quote in yield/basis (basis = yield to maturity).
  • The BUYER pays accrued interest to the SELLER, reimbursed at the next coupon.
  • Premium amortization is mandatory and not deductible; OID accretion is tax-free; market discount is ordinary income.

Numbers to Lock In

ItemValue
Utility revenue bond coverage1.25x (5:4)
Standard revenue bond coverage2.0x
Day count (munis and corporates)30/360 (February = 30 days, year = 360)
Accrued interest denominatorannual coupon / 360
De minimis threshold0.25% x face x years to maturity
Bank-qualified issuer ceiling$10 million or less per calendar year
Bank carrying-cost deduction80%
Basis point0.01% (100 basis points = 1.00%)
Visible supply maturity floor13 months or more
Placement ratio: strong / neutral / weakabove 90% / 80-90% / below 70%

Pricing, Amortization, and Yields

  • Straight-line premium amortization = premium / years to maturity; walks basis down to par (no loss at maturity).
  • Straight-line OID accretion = OID / years to maturity; walks basis up to par (no gain at maturity).
  • Taxable equivalent yield (TEY) = tax-exempt yield / (1 - marginal tax rate). Divide, never multiply. Higher brackets make munis more attractive.
  • Breakeven tax rate = 1 - (tax-exempt yield / taxable yield).
  • Current yield = annual coupon / current market price. At par, coupon = current yield = yield to maturity (YTM).

Bond Buyer Indexes

  • 11-Bond GO Index and 20-Bond GO Index: quoted as yields; the 11-Bond is a higher-quality subset, so its yield is lower. Published weekly.
  • Municipal Bond Index (40-Bond): mix of GO and revenue, quoted as a price. Published weekly.
  • 30-day visible supply: published daily; rising supply is bearish for prices.
  • Placement ratio = new bonds sold / new bonds offered; published weekly; high is bullish.

Memory Aid: Gross vs. Net Flow of Funds

Gross = debt service is Given priority (bondholders paid first). Net = Not until O&M is paid (bondholders paid from what's left).

Top Gotchas

  • Defaulted bonds trade flat: they do not accrue interest, so the buyer pays no accrued interest. Income bonds and zero-coupon bonds also trade flat.
  • Under 30/360, February has 30 days; munis and corporates use 30/360, Treasuries use actual/actual.
  • De minimis: if the discount exceeds the threshold, the ENTIRE discount is ordinary income, not just the excess.
  • U.S. territory bonds (Puerto Rico, Guam, Virgin Islands) are triple tax-exempt in every state.
  • Private activity bonds are subject to alternative minimum tax (AMT); essential purpose bonds are not.
  • Callable and odd-lot bonds are LESS marketable; issuer name matters independently of rating.
  • For premium callable bonds, yield to call is the relevant yield and the lowest: YTC < YTM < current yield < coupon.

One-Breath Recap

Analyze GO bonds on the tax base with debt-per-capita, debt-to-assessed-value, and collection ratios, and analyze revenue bonds on debt-service coverage and flow of funds, remembering gross pledge pays bondholders first. Price in dollar or yield terms on 30/360, amortize premiums and accrete discounts to par, and run taxable equivalent yield by dividing. Keep the tax rules straight: OID accretion is tax-free, market discount is ordinary income, and premium amortization is mandatory.


Need more than the recap? This is a condensed summary. If it is not enough, read the full Municipal Analysis and Pricing unit for the complete lesson.